KRPAN v2

Since 2019, the simulation tool KRPAN v1.0 was continuously maintained and further developed/upgraded:
– SAGA GIS tools are continuously upgraded when available and using the same test data this new version is tested to get the same results as with the previous versions – the current version is KRPAN 2.1.
– All modules were translated into English.
– Raster data from GeoTIFF or ArcGRID are combined with the results of hydraulic computations to estimate flood EAD (Expected Annual Damage) – if we use climate change scenarios in the flood computations we get exponential growth of EAD.
– The Slovenian state LiDAR data are used for constructing DMR1 (Digital Terrain Model 1x1m).
–  Flood hazard maps are produced in line with the European Flood Directive (2007/60/ED) given in the form of ZIP files with SHP vector data according to Slovenian technical regulations for hydrologic-hydraulic flood studies.
and can be applied to the following problems:
– Upgrading of the tool with SLR (sea-level rise) data for simulations of floods in coastal areas under the impacts of sea-level rise, sea surges, and high tides.
– Upgrading of the tool with data on locations of Culture Heritage buildings and their damage curves for simulations of floods threatening cultural heritage.
– Adapting the tool for a web-based use (KRPANweb) is strictly speaking hardly to be realized – if yes, then mainly to show its capabilities, since showing the results of estimated flood damages to a building scale is now allowed to be publically distributed.
– Upgrading of the tool with damage curves for a set of hazards (floods, earthquakes, debris flows, …) for simulations of multi-hazard risks.

How KRPAN 2.1 was used in coastal areas, can be seen from this MSc Thesis:

Alivio MB (2021) Ocena poplavne škode zaradi naraščanja gladine morja = Evaluation of flood damage caused by rising sea levels, University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, MSC Thesis,  82p.

Neizogibno in pospešeno dvigovanje morske gladine zaradi podnebnih sprememb ogroža številna obalna mesta po svetu z različnimi obalnimi nevarnostmi, ki vključujejo vse pogostejše in intenzivnejše poplavljanje morja. Zgodovinsko središče mesta Piran v Sloveniji se bo zaradi specifične topografije obale in visoke koncentracije družbeno-ekonomskih dejavnosti in kulturnih vrednot soočalo s precejšnjim povečanjem poplavnega tveganja zaradi dviga morske gladine. Doslej še ni bila izvedena raziskava, ki bi preučila vpliv povečane pogostosti obalnih poplav inekstremnih poplavnih dogodkov v mestu Piran. V naši raziskavi je bil preučen vpliv spremenjene pojavnosti poplav morja kot posledice dviga morske gladine ter ocenjena ekonomska škoda obalnih poplav na lokalni ravni glede na različno obseg scenarijev dvigagladine morja.Vpliv prihodnjega pričakovanega dviga morske gladine na pojavnost ekstremnih nivojev gladine morja je bil raziskan tako, da smo izvedli statistično analizo pojavnosti nivojev morske gladine z uporabo Gumblove porazdelitve. Ob tako statistično izvrednotenih gladinah smo upoštevali še dodatne dvige morske gladine z upoštevanjem različnih podnebnih scenarijev. Z uporabo digitalnega modela višin, pridobljenega na osnovi LiDAR snemanja obalnega območja, so bili izvrednoteni nivoji gladin morja nadalje upoštevani pri določitvi poplavnih območij z uporabo modela poplavljanja morja, ki deluje v rastrskem okolju geografskega informacijskega sistema (GIS). Ocena izpostavljenosti prebivalstva in sektorskih gospodarskih elementov znotraj mesta Piran je bila izvedena s prekrivanjem hidrološko povezanih poplavnih površin z različnimi nabori prostorskih podatkov. Obsegi poplavljanja in porazdelitev globine vode na poplavnih območjih so bili uporabljeni kot vhodni podatki v model KRPAN (Vidmar et al., 2019) za oceno poplavne škode za različne scenarije dviga morske gladine. Ocene škode izvrednotene z upoštevanjem 6 različnih povratnih dob poplav morja, so bile uporabljene za izdelavo verjetnostnih škodnih krivulj, na osnovi le-teh pa smo nadalje preračunali skupno pričakovano letno škodo zaradi poplav ob upoštevanju različnih scenarijev dviga morske gladine.Rezultati študije so pokazali, da so se intervali pojavljanja sedanjih ekstremnih visokovodnih dogodkov na slovenski obali drastično skrajšali in sicer za približno faktor 2 na vsakih 10 cm dviga morske gladine. Na osnovi izračunov lahko predvidevamo, da bodo trenutni nizkofrekvenčni dogodki s povratnimi dobami od 100 do 1000 let doseženi s skoraj normalnim ciklom plime v primeru, da bo dvig morske gladinesledil dvema kritičnima scenarijema dviga gladine za 0,84 m oz. 1,46 m. Povečanje pogostosti nastopa ekstremnih poplavnih dogodkov bo zelo očitno, 30 cm dvig morske gladine do leta 2100 bo povzročil, da bodo že pri pogostih poplavnih dogodkih poplavljenicelotni nižje ležeče predeli mesta Piran. Poplave morja bodo po naših ocenah prizadela 38% stavb v ožjem starem mestnem jedru in večino lokacij kulturne dediščine, hkrati pa bo v najverjetnejšo izselitev prisiljen 47% delež celotnega prebivalstva na območju, v primeru upoštevanja najbolj kritičnih scenarijev dviga gladine se posledice še dodatno stopnjujejo. Pričakovana letna škoda povezana s to stopnjo dviga morske gladine je približno 2,4 milijona evrov na leto, 65% te škode pa je vezano na stanovanjske zgradbe in gospodarske dejavnosti. Pričakovana letna škoda dramatično naraste na 10,2 milijona evrov na leto v primeru upoštevanja najbolj kritičnih scenarijev dviga morske gladine, kar predstavlja izjemno veliko povečanje izhodiščnih stroškov s sedanje ocene 0,68 milijona evrov na leto. Rezultati jasno kažejo, da bo gospodarski učinek dviga morske gladine na območju starega mestnega jedra Pirana izjemno velik in da se bo glede na lastnosti stanovanjskih nepremičnin in kulturne dediščine lokalna skupnost morala soočiti z velikimi posledicami naraščajoče gladine morja v prihodnosti. Poplavne škode v takšnem obsegu bodo v prihodnosti prav gotovo postale nesprejemljive ter bodo povzročile številne dodatne skrbi ministrstvom, lokalni skupnosti ter družbi v najširšem pomenu, kar jasno kaže na bistveno vlogo in pomen načrtovanja ter izvajanja dolgoročnih protipoplavnih ukrepov.
The inexorability of climate change-driven accelerated sea level rise (SLR) poses consequential threats to the majority of the coastal cities around the world through a range of coastal hazards which include more frequent and intense sea flooding. The historic center of the city of Piran in Slovenia is predicted to face a considerable increase in flood risk and consequences of rising sea levels due to its specific topographical coastal relief and high concentration of socio-economic activities and cultural value. However, no existing study explores the impacts of SLR on the recurring coastal flood hazards and extreme sea level events in Piran. This research investigates the return period variation of sea level extremes and evaluates the economic costs of coastal flood damage at the local level according to the varying magnitude of SLR scenarios. The impact of future SLR on the return period of extreme sea levels was investigated by superposing an array of SLR scenarios onto the Gumbel-fitted current extreme sea levels data. Along with the digital elevation model derived from LiDAR scanning, these scenario-based water levels were translated into a spatial extension of coastal floods using a bathtub inundation model operated in a geographic information system (GIS) raster environment. Exposure assessment of population and sectoral economic elements in Piran was performed by overlaying the hydrologically connected flood surface areas with various geospatial datasets. The extent of inundation and water depth distribution were used as inputs to the KRPAN model (Vidmar et al., 2019) to estimate the economic costs of flood damage for different inundation scenarios. The damage estimates based on six return periods were utilized to construct damage-probability curves and calculate the total expected annual flood damage (EAD) caused by the varying magnitudes of SLR. The results of the study revealed that the recurrence intervals of the present-day extreme sea level events in the coast of Slovenia have drastically shortened by about a factor of 2 for every 10 cm of SLR. The current low-frequency events with a return period of 100-to 1000-year is projected to be exceeded by an almost normal high tide cycle if the increments in sea level follow the two high-end SLR scenarios of 0.84 m and 1.46 m which suggest a higher frequency of extreme sea level in the future. The amplification of the sea level extremes frequency is highly evident, a 30 cm SLR in 2100 will trigger the low probability events to inundate the entire low-lying parts of the city. The inundation will affect 38% of the buildings in the narrow old city center and the majority of cultural heritage sites while causing displacement of 47% of the total inhabitants in the area which further escalates tremendously with higher increments of SLR. Consequently, the EAD associated with this level of SLR is about 2.4 million euros per year and 65% of this damage is borne from residential buildings and household contents. The EAD dramatically escalates to 10.2 million euros per year under a high-impact SLR scenario from a baseline cost of 0.68 million euros per year. The study clearly shows that the economic impact of SLR in the old town of Piran is expected to become costly and in view of its local character, the residential properties and cultural heritage were demonstrated to face the greatest consequences of rising sea levels in the future. This degree of damages is very unlikely to be tolerated and will cause many additional concerns to the state ministries, municipality, and society in the near future which emphasizes the crucial role of long-term coastal adaptation measures implementation.